Session4: Hydrology and water resources

4-2

Title: ENSEMBLE PROJECTION OF RUNOFF FOR THE NEXT 30-50 YEARS IN THE YELLOW RIVER BASIN WITH BMA APPROACH

Ziqi Yan, Zuhao Zhou, Jiajia Liu

With the optimization and selection of climate models, hydrological model, as well as an uncertainty analysis via the bayesian model averaging approach, an ensemble projection framework was established to significantly improve the reliability of runoff in the future. Runoff in 2050 and 2070 was projected with data from the Yellow River Basin, China. The runoff and its 90% confidence intervals at the six main stations of the Yellow River Basin were obtained. The runoff in 2050 and 2070 in the upper and middle reaches of the Yellow River is found to decrease by 4.1 billion m3 and 2.7 billion m3 , respectively, compared with the reference period. The water supply–demand situation in the whole Yellow River Basin is not optimistic. The ensemble projection method in this study is a general calculation process, which can be used widely in hydrometeorological ensemble forecasting, and provides a basis for water resource management planning.