Session4: Hydrology and water resources
Title: ENSEMBLE PROJECTION OF RUNOFF FOR THE NEXT 30-50 YEARS IN THE YELLOW RIVER BASIN WITH BMA APPROACH
Ziqi Yan, Zuhao Zhou, Jiajia Liu
With the optimization and selection of climate models, hydrological model, as well as an uncertainty analysis via the bayesian model averaging approach, an ensemble projection framework was established to significantly improve the reliability of runoff in the future. Runoff in 2050 and 2070 was projected with data from the Yellow River Basin, China. The runoff and its 90% confidence intervals at the six main stations of the Yellow River Basin were obtained. The runoff in 2050 and 2070 in the upper and middle reaches of the Yellow River is found to decrease by 4.1 billion m